Nigeria Energy Outlook

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand.

Nigeria remains Africa’s largest economy: in the AC, supplying an economy three-times larger than today would require less energy demand if the energy mix were to be diversified.

In the AC, gas meets a growing share of energy demand, supported by the implementation of the government’s gas masterplan.

Today, 80% of power generation comes from gas; most of the remainder comes from oil, with Nigeria the largest user of oil-fired back-up generators on the continent.

Natural gas remains the main source of power in the AC, although there is a shift towards solar PV as the country starts to exploit its large solar potential.

Nigeria is a major industrial producer and large chemical exporter. In the AC, it triples chemicals production by 2040 with new gas-based methanol and ammonia plants.

Nigeria has the second-largest vehicle stock in sub-Saharan Africa: the number of vehicles could grow from 14 to 37 million in the AC by 2040 with only two-times more oil consumption if more stringent fuel economy standards were introduced.

Provided that reliability and supply improve, the grid could become the optimal solution to provide almost 60% of people with access to electricity in each scenario.

In the AC, Nigeria achieves universal access by stepping up efforts to provide off-grid solutions to those populations that live far from a grid.

In the STEPS, there is progress on access to clean cooking services but almost three-quarters of the population still lack access in 2030.

In the AC, universal access is achieved through greater household access to gas networks and LPG in the main cities, and to improved cookstoves in rural areas.

Delayed reforms and growing competition in international oil markets means that it takes time for oil production to revive.

In both scenarios, gas demand grows strongly in the industry and power sectors, leading to action to increase production and reduce gas flaring.

Cumulative energy supply investment of $445 billion is needed in the STEPS, almost 80% of which goes to upstream oil and gas.

The AC requires a significant ramp up in power sector investment. Spending on electricity networks and renewables increases by 85% and 165% respectively, compared to STEPS.