National projections have become more and more relevant within the evolving landscape of commitments taken by many countries globally. Governments and other data users benefit from these projections for monitoring the progress towards national energy and climate targets, refining energy models and informing policy reviews and recommendations.
The IEA has historically collected information on energy balances projections from its members, with data up to the year 2050. This data collection has supported the IEA In-depth reviews of energy policies and has been the basis for the annual Energy Policies of IEA Countries database. To better support policy assessment in an evolving energy landscape, such data collection was upgraded over the last years through an extensive consultation of national administrations’ data providers and other experts. The main upgrades of the questionnaire were the definition of four categories of scenarios, with an associated request to countries to share multiple projections when available; and the addition of data for new and emerging technologies within the projections of energy balances.
Energy Projections of IEA Countries includes: i) energy system projections to 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on national scenario modelling in the format of simplified balances, where available, for IEA member countries, accession countries, and the European Union, as collected from national administrations; together with summary balances for historical years for all IEA member countries; ii) a set of indicators developed based on the data collected from countries, consistently with the methodologies adopted by the IEA in the relevant historical databases. Refer to the database documentation for details on the content.
Note that this content is also available within another database: Energy Projections of IEA Countries - with Extended Transitions Indicators, which additionally includes projections for a broader set of indicators such as GHG emissions, intensities, emissions factors.
The service is updated every year in November.