Re-defining Climate Ambition To "Well-below 2°C"

Background

The recent outcome of COP21 and the policy momentum gained before and right after the conference provides the opportunity to re-define climate ambition and move the goalpost to an even more ambitious goal. One of the pillars of the UNFCCC agreement reached in Paris in December 2015 is to “keep global temperature increase ‘well below’ 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C”. The IEA has been providing scenario analysis on the energy sector transformation required to keep temperature increase below 2°C in its World Energy Outlook and Energy Technology Perspectives for nearly a decade.

This technical workshop aims at identifying sectoral opportunities to achieve a faster and deeper energy-sector decarbonisation that would respond to the Paris agreement. The workshop is designed to inform the IEA modelling teams by exploring technology opportunities by sector, the potential leverage of non-technological factors, as well as the challenges and required strategies to achieve a scenario in line with the Paris Agreement Objectives. 

With the objective of identifying potential analytical streams by sector on the ‘well below’ 2°C scenario (WB2DS), the IEA will host an international workshop that seeks the participation of experts from national governments, businesses and industry (including the financial community), academia, international organizations, NGOs and think-tanks. The workshop will be aimed at identifying potential venues for analysis on the WB2DS from the discussion among participants, drawing insight from their diverse backgrounds and rich expertise.

Agenda

Welcome and opening remarks
Kamel Ben Naceur, Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks Director

IEA Scenarios: Re-defining Climate Ambition

Decarbonisation scenarios in the World Energy Outlook
Laura Cozzi, Energy Demand Outlook Division Head

Re-defining climate ambition to “Well-below 2C”: Background and proposed ETP analysis
Jean-François Gagné, Energy Technology Policy (ETP) Division head

Emissions pathways, technology innovation systems and policy frameworks for well-below 2°C scenarios
Moderators: Daniele Poponi, ETP Senior Energy Analyst and Timur Gül, WEO Senior Energy Analyst

Under what assumptions can the ambition of the Paris Agreement materialize?
Joeri Rogelj, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Bridging the scenario-implementation gap: the role of technological innovation‌
Jim Skea, Imperial College and WG3, IPCCC

“Well below 2 degrees”: The potential role of buildings and other novel demand-side approaches in deep mitigation
Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Central European University and WG3, IPCCC

Sectoral opportunities and challenges for more ambitious decarbonization paths (break-out groups)Moderators: John Dulac and Stephanie Bouckaert (Buildings), Araceli Fernandez Pales and Fabian Kesicki (Industry), Uwe Remme and Marco Baroni (Power), Pierpaolo Cazzola (Transport)

Buildings
Heat Pump Technologies in Japan
Hirose Yukinobu, Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan

Solar thermal energy for climate neutral built environment
Lex Bosselaar, IEA Solar Heating & Cooling Programme

Heat pumps as key integrator technology for a below 2°C scenario
Thomas Nowak, Secretary General European Heat Pump Association

Industry

Power
Innovation, Electricity and Climate
Taishi Sugiyama, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry

Transport
Draft Proposal for a Global Road Map for De-carbonization of the Transport Sector
Dr. Patrick Oliva, Michelin