Global oil demand rebounded in 2021 from its Covid-induced historic decline and while demand is set to keep increasing in the immediate years, its longer-term outlook is uncertain because of challenges from alternative fuels and changing behaviour of drivers and commuters.

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Key findings

Oil demand forecast, 2010-2026, pre-pandemic and in Oil 2021


Global oil demand shifts lower after historic collapse

World oil markets have rebounded from the massive demand shock triggered by Covid-19 but still face a high degree of uncertainty that is testing the industry as never before. The forecast for global oil demand has shifted lower, and demand could peak earlier than previously thought if a rising focus by governments on clean energy turns into stronger policies, and behavioural changes induced by the pandemic become deeply rooted.

Global methane emissions from oil and gas operations in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2000-2030


Methane emissions from oil and gas remain high despite industry initiatives and government policies

Oil production is currently responsible for around 40% of methane emissions, with leaks across the natural gas value chain accounting for the remaining 60%. Upstream oil and gas operations lead to more than three-quarters of total emissions, with the downstream segment accounting for the remaining share.

The 5% drop in methane emissions in 2020 occurred mainly because of the fall in oil and gas production and emissions are likely to rebound in 2021. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, methane emissions decline rapidly for the next ten years, falling to be lower 75% in 2030 than in 2020. This results mostly from rapid deployment of emissions reduction measures and technologies, which leads to the elimination of all technically avoidable methane emissions within this decade.

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Our work

Created in 1979, the EOR TCP evaluates and disseminates the results of research and development of enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Its primary focus is on improving the economics of EOR, increasing the recovery of oil originally in place, and extending reservoir economic life. The activities of the EOR TCP mainly cover information exchange on independent research activities carried out by the participating countries, the results of which are disseminated through annual Executive Committee meetings, two-day workshops and one-day symposia.

Created in 2013, the GOTCP brings together representatives from governments, industry and academia in a global dialogue to explore the role of oil and gas technology in the energy transition. GOTCP aims to catalyse innovation across oil and gas technologies and to provide collaborative opportunities for enhancing national capabilities within both onshore and offshore activities.