Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions

Outlook for battery demand and supply

Summary

  • Batteries are set to play a leading role in secure energy transitions. They are critical to achieve commitments made by nearly 200 countries at COP28 in 2023. Their commitments aim to transition away from fossil fuels and by 2030 to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the pace of energy efficiency improvements.
  • To facilitate the rapid deployment of new solar PV and wind power that is necessary to triple renewables, global energy storage capacity must increase sixfold to 1 500 GW by 2030. Batteries account for 90% of the increase in storage in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, rising 14-fold to 1 200 GW by 2030. This includes both utility-scale and behind-the-meter battery storage. Other storage technologies include pumped hydro, compressed air, flywheels and thermal storage.
  • Innovation reduces total capital costs of battery storage by up to 40% in the power sector by 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario. This renders battery storage paired with solar PV one of the most competitive new sources of electricity, including compared with coal and natural gas. The cost cuts also make stand-alone battery storage more competitive with natural gas peaking options. Lower costs make behind-the-meter battery storage more attractive for consumers. Further it facilitates expanded opportunities to provide electricity access to the millions of people that lack it, cutting by nearly half the average electricity costs of mini-grids with solar PV coupled with batteries by 2030.
  • Batteries in electric vehicles (EVs) are essential to deliver global energy efficiency gains and the transition away from fossil fuels. In the NZE Scenario, EV sales rise rapidly, with demand for EV batteries up sevenfold by 2030 and displacing the need for over 8 million barrels of oil per day. Batteries in EVs and storage applications together are directly linked to close to 20% of the CO2 emissions reductions needed in 2030 on the path to net zero emissions.
  • Investment in batteries in the NZE Scenario reaches USD 800 billion by 2030, up 400% relative to 2023. This doubles the share of batteries in total clean energy investment in seven years. Further investment is required to expand battery manufacturing capacity. Announcements for new battery manufacturing capacity, if realised, would increase the global total nearly fourfold by 2030, which would be sufficient to meet demand in the NZE Scenario. The demand for critical minerals in batteries is set to rise significantly, requiring investments in new projects, recycling and financial tools for sustainability. Battery recycling can provide a secondary source of materials, aiding production while minimising battery-related waste. Artificial intelligence may offer avenues to accelerate new battery chemistry development and to ease strain on critical minerals.
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