Nearly 200 countries made major collective pledges on energy at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai with the aim of keeping within reach the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. For the first time, governments set key global goals for 2030 to help meet this objective, including tripling renewable power capacity; doubling energy efficiency improvements; substantially reducing methane emissions; and accelerating the just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.

Now, attention is shifting towards implementation, especially as countries prepare updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Next year, countries are expected to submit new NDCs. These climate action plans will include revised ambitions for 2030 and new goals for 2035 – providing an important opportunity for countries to make clear commitments or raise their ambitions to fully implement the global pledges made at COP28.

This is a critical time for countries to evaluate their renewable ambitions and update their NDCs with the clear aim of reaching the tripling goal. Recent IEA analysis indicates that tripling global renewable power capacity by 2030 is an ambitious but achievable goal, given record-breaking annual deployment, remarkable momentum in the sector, and increasing competitiveness with fossil fuels – especially for solar PV and wind. This report aims to highlight what is still needed to get there. Covering almost 150 countries, it seeks to answer four main questions: 1) How is renewable power capacity reflected in existing government commitments in NDCs, and in countries’ ambitions, announcements and plans? 2) Are countries on track to achieve these ambitions? 3) How do these ambitions measure against the COP28 pledge to triple global capacity by 2030? 4) What are relevant policy priorities to address gaps in both implementation and ambition? 

Of the 194 Nationally Determined Contributions previously submitted, only 14 include explicit targets for total renewable power capacity for 2030. Renewable capacity ambitions by 2030 across NDCs amount to a total of only over 1 300 gigawatts (GW) – just 12% of the global tripling pledge, which requires installed renewable capacity of at least 11 000 GW by 2030.

China’s goal of 1 200 GW of solar PV and wind capacity this decade accounts for over 90% of all renewable capacity mentioned in NDCs. Still, many governments view renewables as a key means to mitigate emissions, with 95% of NDCs (184 of them in total) containing references to “renewable” energy or individual renewable energy technologies, while 93 include a quantitative value for their renewable energy ambitions for 2030. 

Countries’ overall ambitions on renewable power capacity correspond to reaching almost 8 000 GW globally in 2030, based on analysis of all existing policies, plans and estimates for almost 150 countries. These countries represent almost all global emissions from power generation and the production of heat. According to our detailed policy stocktake, half of global ambition can be explicitly tracked in national policy documents, plans and multilateral commitments for more than 90 countries. We also estimated values for another 48 countries with other renewable energy ambitions from which total capacity could be easily derived. China accounts for almost half of this estimated total.

Solar PV and wind energy dominate countries’ ambitions, while hydropower, bioenergy and other renewables tend to be overlooked. If countries meet their ambitions for 2030, the installed capacity of solar PV would surpass hydropower, which was the world’s largest source of installed renewable capacity in 2022. Variable renewables make up most of the capacity explicitly identified by governments, with solar PV representing 50%, followed by wind at 26%. While more than 60 countries have announced intentions to install variable renewables, only 47 have identified goals for hydropower. For other renewables, such as bioenergy, geothermal, concentrating solar power (CSP) and ocean technologies, the number is far lower.

Based on their ambitions and plans, almost half of the countries analysed would more than double their total installed renewable power capacity by 2030, but some intend to move even faster. If all ambitions were to be achieved, global installed renewable capacity would be 2.2 times 2022 level by 2030. Nearly 30 countries aim to increase their renewable capacity by two to three times by 2030, accounting for almost three-quarters of global ambition, led by China, the United States, India, Germany and Spain.

The scale and speed of the expansion of China’s renewable capacity will be crucial for the overall pace of global deployment through 2030. China has not yet published an explicit 2030 target for total renewable capacity. However, the country is expected to surpass its 2030 target of 1 200 GW of solar PV and wind this year. IEA estimates taking into account the most recent deployment trends indicate that capacity in China in 2030 is set to be 2.5 times its 2022 level.

Current policies and plans in advanced economies indicate an almost doubling of their renewable capacity by 2030 – accounting for almost 40% of global ambition. This is led by European countries, which contribute one-fifth of the global total. Member states of the European Union account for over 80% of the region’s contribution, mostly based on their draft national energy and climate plans (NECPs). Together, the United States and Canada have ambitions to install close to 1 000 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, or 13% of global ambition.

Emerging and developing economies, excluding China, also currently plan to double capacity, led by strong ambition from India. In Latin America, where renewables already account for more than 60% of the region’s electricity generation due the longstanding use of hydropower, the sum of country ambitions corresponds to 1.3 times as much installed capacity in 2030. Brazil alone is responsible for more than half of the region’s total ambition. Sub-Saharan Africa and Eurasia are aiming for installed renewable capacity of 3.2 and 1.3 times today’s levels respectively. The Middle East and North Africa region shows the highest growth factor based on its ambitions – 4.5 times its current small base, led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Algeria.

Global renewable capacity additions reached almost 560 GW in 2023, an unprecedented 64% year-over-year increase from 2022. This is in line with the annual pace needed to reach nearly 8 000 GW of installed capacity by 2030, a total that matches countries’ current policies, plans and estimates.

Nearly 50 countries are on track to reach or surpass their current plans – though China is by far the biggest contributor. In 2023, China installed almost 350 GW of new renewable capacity, more than half of the global total. If it sustains this pace, it could dramatically surpass its existing ambitions for 2030. Outside of China, however, the rest of the world would need to accelerate average annual growth by 36% over the rest of the decade to reach national ambitions.

To meet national ambitions and spread progress more widely, the pace of deployment needs to accelerate in most regions and major countries – including the European Union, the United States and India. Major scaling up of deployment is also needed in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Even if all countries were to fully implement their current ambitions, the world would fall 30% short of tripling global renewable capacity to over 11 000 GW by 2030. The current ambitions of advanced economies and of emerging and developing economies are not aligned with the COP28 pledge to triple global renewable power capacity by 2030, which is one of the key elements needed to get on track for the IEA’s pathway to achieving net zero emissions by mid-century and limiting warming to 1.5 °C. For advanced economies, the level of ambition needs to increase from a growth factor of 1.9 to 2.5. For emerging and developing economies, the growth factor should rise from 2.4 to 3.4.

The improving cost competitiveness of renewables compared with fossil fuels highlights the important role policies can play in accelerating deployment. Since 2015, when the Paris Agreement was signed, global renewable capacity additions have tripled. This is largely due to policy support across 140 countries, economies of scale and technological progress. These factors have helped reduce the cost of wind and solar PV by over 40%. Well-designed policies addressing current challenges for renewables can accelerate deployment further – bridging the implementation gaps that persist and encouraging countries to continue to increase their ambitions in the coming years.

While all countries will choose their own policy pathways based on their specific situations, this report suggests possible priorities for clusters of countries that share common challenges when it comes to deploying renewable capacity. These challenges include lengthy wait times for permits, inadequate investment in grid infrastructure, the need to quickly and cost-effectively integrate variable renewables, and high financing costs. In all, the report identifies 11 key challenges.

The report proposes targeted actions that clusters of countries can take to address these obstacles. For example, to streamline permitting, it recommends simplifying rules, procedures and administrative structures; ensuring relevant departments are sufficiently staffed and have the right skills; investing in spatial planning to streaming zoning; and involving local communities throughout the permitting process. On accelerating the integration of variable renewables, recommendations include incentivising power system flexibility; developing greater energy storage capacity; and leveraging digitalisation to enable greater demand response. And on reducing financing costs to improve the bankability of renewable projects, it suggests introducing or extending long-term policy visibility; supporting projects in the pre-development phase; reducing price, inflation and exchange rate risks; and reducing risks for offtakers while ensuring affordability for consumers.