Methodological note

This release is based on data for the first quarter of 2020 (Q1) from numerous sources, using data available as of mid-April 2020. Data is available for around two-third of global primary energy demand.

In general, the data collected includes the latest monthly IEA country data submissions through end-February and end-March when available; other statistical releases from national administrations around the world; and IEA estimates where official data is missing.

Oil demand data by country issues from the recent market data compiled for the latest monthly IEA Oil Market Report, published on 16 April 2020.

Gas demand data has been collected for around half of global gas demand. Data includes information from the EIA for the United States, transmission system operators in Europe, CQPGX for China, PPAC for India, KOGAS for Korea and LNG import data as a proxy for gas demand in several additional countries.

Coal demand data is derived principally from coal power generation information, with available data covering around two-third of global coal demand.

Data collected for renewable energy production in 2020 was combined with 2019 renewable energy capacity additions in over 100 countries.

Daily, weekly and monthly electricity demand and generation data was compiled from several sources, such as the United States EIA hourly data, ENTSO-E hourly data for Europe, latest monthly submission for OECD countries, National Load Dispatch Centre daily data for India, as well as China and Brazil. Collected electricity demand and generation data covers around three-quarters of global electricity demand.

As a result of possible differences in data collection methodologies and data definitions, real-time and daily data may not match the methodologies used for monthly, quarterly or annual data.

Assessment of the change in electricity demand by sector was based on a detailed load curve matching methodology that tracked changes to the profile of electricity use by sector in certain regions, and then adjusted the shares of electricity demand by sector to match the observed load curve during certain weeks of 2020. Total load curves were normalised to remove the weather effect from assessment of the impact by sector.

The impact of the pandemic on GDP due to the contraction of the sectoral outputs is based on a variety of sources. For countries available1, sectoral and economy-wide impacts were derived from OECD analysis: "Evaluating the initial impact of Covid-19 containment measures on economic activity", 27 March 2020. Data for China, India, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom were complemented by the following reports from: CEBR (2020); INSEE (2020); INSTAT (2020); Dorn et al. (2020); and ADB (2020).

The set of countries mentioned above account for a combined share of more than 80% of global GDP. To calculate the world average, the contraction on annual GDP growth for the rest of the world is assumed at 2% per month of containment measures.

References

Context and economy

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Bolt, J. et al. (2018), Rebasing “Maddison”: New income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development, (GGDC Research Memorandum; Vol. GD-174), Groningen Growth and Development Center, Groningen, (accessed April 2020).

CEBR (Center for Economic and Business Research) (2020), As the UK remains in lockdown, government may need to target more support at manufacturing sector (report, 6 April 2020), (accessed 6 April 2020).

Dorn, F. et al. (2020) The economic costs of Corona shutdown for Germany: A scenario calculation, (EconPol Policy Brief 25), Institut Ifo, (accessed 22 March 2020).

Hale, T. et al. (2020), Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (website), Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University.

IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2020), World Economic Outlook (April 2020 update), Washington, DC.

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INSEE (2020), Point de conjoncture du 9 avril [Point of conjecture], web page, (accessed 9 April 2020).

ISTAT (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica/National Institute of Statistics) (2020), Nota mensile sull’andamento dell’economia italiana [Monthly note on the performance of the Italian economy], (press release of 7 April 2020).

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), Evaluating the initial impact of Covid-19 containment measures on economic activity (paper), (accessed 27 March 2020).

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Electricity and renewables

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ELEXON, the Balancing and Settlement Code Company (BSCCo), Contains BMRS data © ELEXON Limited copyright (accessed April 2020).

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OCCTO (Organization for Cross-Regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operators, Japan) (2020), Demand data provided by regional TSOs, and sources provide therein, (accessed 23 April 2020).

ONS (Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico) (2020), Histórico da Operação (database), (accessed 08 April 2020).

RTE (Réseau de Transport d'Électricité), (accessed April 2020).

TERNA, Transmission operator of Italy, (accessed April 2020).

Natural gas

Choudhary, S. (2020), GAIL expects gas demand to pick up soon, The Economic Times, (accessed 16 April 2020).

EIA (Energy Information Administration) (2020), Natural Gas Weekly Update, US Department of Energy, (accessed 20 April 2020).

Enagás (2020), Demanda de gas natural - Histórico de demanda [Natural gas demand – demand history] (database), (accessed 22 April 2020).

ENTSOG (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas) (2020), Transparency Platform (database), (accessed 22 April 2020).

Fluxys (2020), Transmission – Flow Data (database), (accessed 22 April 2020).

GRTgaz (2020), Smart GRTgaz: Consommation – Données Journalières [Consumption – Daily Data] (database), (accessed 22 April 2020).

IEA (International Energy Agency) (2020), Monthly Gas Statistics (database), (accessed 17 April 2020).

Jaganathan, J. (2020), South Korea's KOGAS asks for LNG cargo delays as demand tanks, (news article), Reuters, (accessed 9 April 2020).

National Grid (2020), Transmission Operational Data (database), (accessed 22 April 2020).

NBS (National Bureau of Statistics of China) (2020), 2020年3月份能源生产情况 [Energy production in March 2020], (accessed 20 April 2020).

PPAC (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell) (2020), Gas Consumption – Current (database), Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, (accessed 21 April 2020).

Snam (2020), Transported Natural Gas (database), (accessed 22 April 2020).

Xinhua (2020), China's natural gas apparent consumption inches up in Jan.-Feb., (news article)(accessed 7 April 2020).

Coal and oil

CRU (2020), Online information service (by subscription only), (accessed 23 April 2020).

EIA (Energy Information Administration) (2020), Coal, (statistics website), US Department of Energy, (accessed 15 April 2020).

IEA (International Energy Agency) (2020), Monthly OECD oil statistics: Data up to January 2020 (Statistics report – April 2020), Paris.

IEA (2020), Oil Market Report - April 2020, Paris.

IHS Markit (2020), Market and business intelligence platform (by subscription only), (accessed 23 April 2020).

JODI (Joint Organisations Data Initiative), The JODI Oil World Database, (accessed DATE NEEDED).

NBS (National Bureau of Statistics of China) (2020), Energy production in the first two months of 2020, (press release).

PPAC (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell) (2020), Report and Studies (webpages).

World Steel Association (2020), March 2020 crude steel production (webpage), (accessed 23 April 2020).

Transport

Apple (2020), Mobility Trends Reports (website), (accessed April 2020).

CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) (2020), Automotive Statistics (website), (accessed April 2020).

ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association) (2020), Statistics (website), (accessed April 2020).

IEA (International Energy Agency) (forthcoming), Global EV Outlook 2020, IEA, Paris.

Irle, R. (2020), Global BEV & PHEV sales for 2019 (web article), (accessed April 2020).

OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers), Production Statistics and Sales Statistics (web pages), (accessed April 2020).

Marklines, Information Platform (website), (accessed April 2020).

OAG (Official Aviation Guide) (2020), Coronavirus: Understand the airline schedule changes and manage the impact (website), (accessed April 2020).

Rystad Energy (2020), Covid‑19 Report – Scenarios and impact on global energy markets (press release), (accessed April 2020).

References
  1. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.