• The clean energy transition brings new energy security risks. Although capital spending on critical minerals saw a 30% increase in 2022 and exploration spending rose by 20%, announced critical mineral mining projects are not sufficient to meet the needs of the Net Zero by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario) in 2030. Bridging this gap requires a focus on investment, recycling, technology innovation and behavioural change.

Anticipated supply and projected demand for nickel in the Net Zero Scenario, 2030


Anticipated supply and projected demand for copper in the Net Zero Scenario, 2030


Anticipated supply and projected demand for cobalt in the Net Zero Scenario, 2030


Anticipated supply and projected demand for lithium in the Net Zero Scenario, 2030

  • More traditional energy security risks do not disappear. Global oil and gas markets reduce in volume terms in the NZE Scenario, but production becomes concentrated in a small number of producers, with the share of the Middle East rising from 25% today to 40% in 2050.
  • The NZE Scenario sees a huge increase in clean energy investment and a rapid decrease in fossil fuel investment. Ensuring a smooth transition requires the two to be carefully synchronised. In the NZE Scenario, the key requirement is a massive and rapid increase in clean energy investment.
  • Today more than 80% of clean energy investment is taking place in advanced economies and China; more is needed in emerging and developing economies. The NZE Scenario sees clean energy investment increasing nearly threefold from the current level by 2030, but fivefold in emerging market and developing economies other than China. Around USD 80-100 billion in annual concessional funding is needed by the early 2030s to lower the cost of finance and mobilise private capital in lower income countries.
  • Affordability of energy is a key concern. A people-centred transition requires measures to ensure that the least well-off in all societies are able to benefit from the lower operating costs of clean and energy-efficient technologies. In overall terms, clean energy investment in the NZE Scenario is outweighed by declines in spending on fossil fuels, with worldwide net energy spending savings equalling USD 12 trillion to 2050. 

Clean energy investment needs by region/country in the Net Zero Scenario, 2022-2050

  • The Global Stocktake needs to provide a clear signal about the ambition and urgency with which countries are preparing their new Nationally Determined Contributions – the key vehicle for collective action under the Paris Agreement.
  • International co-operation is central to develop agreed standards, to diversify clean energy supply chains in a way that avoids undermining the benefits of global supply chains, to ensure that rapid scale up can be achieved, and to share lessons learned from clean energy demonstration projects to accelerate innovation.