Renewable energy consumption in the power, heat and transport sectors increases near 60% over 2024-2030 in our main-case forecast. This increase boosts the share of renewables in final energy consumption to nearly 20% by 2030, up from 13% in 2023. Electricity generation from renewable energy sources makes up more than three-quarters of the overall rise, owing to continued policy support in more than 130 countries, declining costs and the expanding use of electricity for road transport and heat pumps.

Renewable fuels, including liquid, gaseous and solid bioenergy as well as hydrogen and e-fuels, account for near 15% of the forecast growth in renewable energy demand. These fuels expand the quickest in areas not amenable to electrification (e.g. the aviation and marine sectors) and offer energy access in rural areas and in industries with readily available biomass (e.g. sugar and ethanol, and pulp and paper). Other renewable energy, such as solar thermal and geothermal, accounts for the remaining 10% of growth.

In the electricity sector, the renewable energy share is forecast to expand from 30% in 2023 to 46% in 2030. Solar and wind make up almost all this growth. This rapid expansion has a spillover effect, helping decarbonise other sectors in which power is used for industrial processes, heating buildings and charging electric vehicles. Renewable electricity is also used to produce renewable hydrogen destined for use in materials, chemicals and for power production which accounts for near three-quarters of renewable hydrogen demand in 2030 in our main case.

As a result, renewable electricity is also the primary source of renewable energy expansion in the heat and transport sectors. The share of renewables in heat demand climbs to nearly 20% of the total, supplied by solid and gaseous bioenergy, solar thermal and geothermal energy, and ambient heat. In the transport sector, the renewable energy share climbs to 6% of total demand as liquid biofuel consumption expands in the road, aviation and marine segments, with a small contribution from hydrogen and e-fuels. 

Global renewable electricity generation is forecast to climb to over 17 000 TWh (60 EJ) by 2023, an increase of almost 90% from 2023. This would be enough to meet the combined power demand of China and the United States in 2030. Over the next six years, several renewable energy milestones are expected to be reached:

• In 2024, solar PV and wind generation together surpass hydropower generation.
• In 2025, renewables-based electricity generation overtakes coal-fired.
• In 2026, wind and solar power generation both surpasses nuclear.
• In 2027, solar PV electricity generation surpasses wind.
• In 2029, solar PV electricity generation surpasses hydropower and becomes largest renewable power source.
• In 2030, wind-based generation surpasses hydropower.

In 2030, renewable energy sources are used for 46% of global electricity generation, with wind and solar PV together making up 30%. By 2030, however, solar PV becomes the foremost renewable electricity source, followed by wind, both surpassing hydropower. 

In 2030, variable renewables account for two-thirds of global renewable electricity generation, rising from less than 45% today. Over the forecast period, the share of solar PV in meeting global power demand triples while wind almost doubles and the role of hydropower becomes less prominent. Hydropower generation is still expected to grow globally as new projects become operational, mostly in emerging and developing countries, but the technology’s share in total power generation declines slightly.

The share of other renewables, including bioenergy, concentrated solar power and geothermal energy, remains unchanged at less than 3%. As variable renewables account for 90% of the global renewable generation increase over the forecast period, additional sources of power system flexibility will be required. Meanwhile, bioenergy, geothermal and concentrated solar power expansions remain limited despite their critical role in integrating wind and solar PV generation into electricity systems around the world.

In the next six years, renewable energy demand in the transport sector is set to increase 3.0 EJ, double the 1.5 EJ increase of 2017-2023. Growth also becomes more diverse, with renewable electricity, aviation biofuels, marine biofuels, hydrogen and e-fuels emerging to complement increased biofuel use for road transportation. While biofuel use for road transport made up nearly 90% of growth in renewable transport demand during 2017-2023, over the next six years this share drops to 33% with the remainder comprising renewable electricity (50%), aviation and maritime biofuels (10%), and hydrogen and e-fuels (7%). 

Renewable shares of transport energy demand are rising globally, but regional trajectories differ. In the United States, Europe and China, renewable electricity makes up most new renewable transport demand, as electric vehicle stocks expand, powered by growing shares of renewable electricity. In contrast, road biofuel demand is levelling off in these regions.

In the United States and Europe, biofuel support policies persist, but rising electric vehicle use and vehicle efficiency are reducing overall transport fuel demand, thereby limiting the potential for biofuel growth. Nonetheless, new policies for the aviation and marine sectors are boosting biofuel demand in both regions. While biofuel support remains limited in China, in Brazil, India and much of the rest of the world, biofuels remain the dominant source of new renewable transport demand to 2030.

Current renewable energy demand forecasts for the road, marine and aviation subsectors fall short of the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario trajectory. Among these, road transport is the closest to meeting the scenario’s targets, thanks to ongoing and planned biofuel production and the growing adoption of electric vehicles, which are powered increasingly by renewable electricity.

However, the aviation and marine segments currently depend almost entirely on fossil fuels, with renewable fuel projects only beginning to emerge. To align with the Net Zero by 2050 Scenario, biofuel consumption in these sectors must increase from 6% to 20% of global biofuel demand in 2030. Additionally, the use of hydrogen, e‑kerosene, e‑ammonia, and e‑methanol, which is currently negligible, rises to 1.5 EJ, representing about 30% of the transport sector's renewable energy use today.

Heat remains the primary end-use sector, accounting for almost half of global final energy consumption and nearly 40% of energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2023. During 2017-2023, annual heat demand expanded 7% (+14 EJ) globally. As modern renewable heat consumption1 represented only half of additional heat demand, annual heat-related CO₂ emissions rose 5% during the last six years – almost entirely in the industry sector.

In 2023, high interest rates, inflation, less construction activity in many countries, a return to lower natural gas prices and changing policies transformed the landscape of many renewable heat markets. Heat pumps and solar thermal and geothermal heating systems have low operating costs, but they entail a considerable investment for households, so sales are particularly sensitive to borrowing costs and consumer sentiment.

Last year, new solar thermal installations declined 7%, mainly because of persistent real estate sector challenges in China, the largest market. Positive solar thermal developments in India (+27% year-on-year, encouraged by the easing of financial pressures after the Covid-19 pandemic), Mexico (+5%), Brazil (+3%), the United Kingdom (+66%, supported by high energy tariffs), Greece (+10%) and emerging African markets were mostly offset by significant declines in Denmark (-‑25%), Spain (-26%), Germany (-46%), Poland (-38%) and Australia (-8%).

The global heat pump market also stalled in 2023. After robust growth in 2022 owing to high energy prices and policy support in Europe, the United States and China, newly installed capacity was 3% lower in 2023. Air-to-water heat pump sales dropped 10% year-on-year in Japan – one of the most mature heat pump markets – amid high inflation and low consumer spending. Sales of air-to-air heat pumps fell 15% year-on-year in the United States, partly due to rising borrowing costs and consumer hesitation over big-ticket investments. Some US consumers also postponed their purchases in anticipation of upcoming state-administered Inflation Reduction Act rebates for low- and medium-income households, which are expected to become available in 2024 or 2025 depending on the state.

While still the second-best sales level, heat pump purchases in Europe contracted 6.5% year-on-year in 2023, forcing several manufacturers to adjust operations and cut jobs. Contrasting trends were observed across national heat pump markets in Europe, however, with sales rising significantly in Germany (+59%), the Netherlands (+43%) and Belgium (+72%), but contracting sharply in Italy (-44%), Finland (-42%) and Poland (-39%).

Yet, heat pumps continue to gain ground over fossil fuel boilers in Europe, with their market share expanding in almost all countries last year (except Italy, Poland and Finland) to make up almost one-third of heating system sales in 2023. Lower heat pump sales in the United States, Europe and Japan were only partly offset by 12% growth in the Chinese market (the largest one), resulting from renewed construction activity after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions.

The limited growth of solar thermal capacity and the recent slowdown of heat pump sales emphasises the need for consistent and continued policy support for cash-strapped households to overcome financing challenges. It also highlights the importance of further enhancing heat pump cost-competitiveness by adjusting energy tariffs and taxes to reduce the price gap between electricity and gas, which remains high in many markets. Additionally, alternative business models such as energy service companies (ESCOs), which are currently being developed mainly for medium- and large-scale projects, could play an important role in boosting renewable heat deployment.

Global renewable heat consumption is expected to grow more than 50% (15 EJ) during 2024-2030, representing 2.4 times the increase of the previous six-year period. However, this growth equals less than three-quarters of the projected rise in total heat demand, so fossil fuel use for heat also increases and annual heat-related CO₂ emissions climb 4% by 2030. Over 2024-2030, global cumulative heat-related emissions are expected to exceed 100 Gt CO₂ – almost 30% of the remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.2