The Republic of Tajikistan (Tajikistan) is home to over 9.9 million people, over 70% of whom live in rural areas with their main source of income from agriculture – the country’s largest sector. Tajikistan gained independence in September 1991, which was shortly followed by a five-year civil war, from May 1992 to June 1997. The decade after the civil war saw strong economic growth, with measurable progress in reducing poverty and expanding the economy. However, Tajikistan’s rate of job creation has not kept pace with its growing population, leaving the economy vulnerable to external shocks. The National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the Period up to 2030 (the Strategy 2030) aims to increase domestic incomes by up to 3.5 times and to reduce poverty by half by the year 2030. This is achievable if Tajikistan succeeds in transforming its present growth model and offers the private sector increased opportunities to invest, create jobs and contribute to innovation and growth.

With abundant water potential from its rivers, natural lakes and glaciers, Tajikistan is almost exclusively reliant on hydro for electricity generation. It has some of the world’s largest hydropower plants (HPPs): the Nurek HPP, commissioned in 1972, and Rogun HPP, currently under construction. Although Tajikistan is ranked eighth in the world for hydropower potential with an estimate of 527 terawatt-hours (TWh), the country’s current hydro potential is only exploited at approximately 4%. The challenge to successful economic management is Tajikistan’s high vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters. Just in the 25 years between 1992 and 2016, natural and climate-related disasters have affected an estimated 7 million of the country’s people and caused gross domestic product (GDP) losses of around USD 1.8 billion.

Electricity is an integral part of Tajikistan’s economy, and providing a clean, affordable and secure supply of electricity has been of paramount importance for the government since independence. Despite its energy potential, Tajikistan’s energy sector is susceptible to supply shocks. The country’s dependence on electricity generation from HPPs makes it prone to seasonal electricity shortages due to water level fluctuations in hydropower reservoirs,  leaving an estimated 1 million people without reliable electricity supply during the winter months. While Tajikistan has been successful in providing universal access to electricity, the existing systems of its energy infrastructure function inefficiently. The large majority of hydro plants were built in the Soviet era and are ageing and require rehabilitation. Losses caused by the poor quality of the country’s transmission and distribution systems have averaged 15.5% for the last two decades, in comparison, average losses in IEA member countries were below 7% of supply, and saw a steady decline in the same period. Meanwhile, Tajikistan’s non‑domestic sector experiences an average of six power outages per month.

Energy policy priorities in Tajikistan are aimed primarily at alleviating annual winter shortages and providing the population with uninterrupted access to energy. The country’s approach to its energy crisis has been variable, depending on the political situation and relationships with its neighbours. At present, the government plans to diversify energy sources (including by introducing non‑hydro renewable energy), to rehabilitate and modernise existing energy infrastructure, and to increase energy saving as well as regional integration.

Tajikistan’s connection to the Central Asia Power System (CAPS) was cut off in 2009 as a result of Uzbekistan’s disconnection from the system, and gas supplies from Uzbekistan also ceased in 2013, amplifying the country’s concern’s regarding steady energy supplies.  This threatened the country’s energy security even further, forcing the government to internalise its energy policy and consider developing domestic energy resources, including coal, and to increase cooperation with other neighbours. From 2018 the export of natural gas from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan was restarted along with the export of Tajik electricity to Uzbekistan, and both countries are currently working on reconnecting Tajikistan’s energy system to CAPS, with completion expected in 2023.

Energy security remains a national priority, and one of the government’s prime aims to achieve this is by increasing electricity generation capacity to power industrial development, particularly aluminium production, and increase electricity exports. Central to achieving the aims of the Strategy 2030 is the Rogun HPP project, the construction of  a 3 600-megawatt (MW) plant at a cost of almost USD 4 billion that is expected to be completed and commissioned by 2032. The project will make a significant contribution to the strategy’s goal of poverty reduction and growth through reducing energy shortages and increasing hydropower exports. However, construction on such a scale creates social and economic risks including community displacement, changes in hydrological flow regimes and its impacts on livelihoods and wildlife habitats, which will have to be managed by the government in order to avoid instability.

Another aim is the diversification of electricity sources away from HPPs, which currently generate 90% of electricity. Other options for increased capacity, as indicated in the Strategy 2030, are renewables (solar, wind) and coal-fired power plants. Tajikistan’s mineral resource endowment has not been fully assessed and its coal, oil and gas deposits are estimated to be moderate. Oil and gas production remains modest, and almost all the country’s oil and gas needs for both residential and industrial uses are satisfied by imports. Coal mining, on the other hand, has been on the rise and it has seen a tenfold production increase in the last decade, reaching 2.1 million tonnes (Mt) of coal production in 2020. Coal has become a significant source of district heating in Dushanbe, following the commissioning of the Dushanbe-2 co‑generation1 plant, and further projects coal use in the district heating sector have been announced. Utilising Tajikistan’s unexploited natural resources to meet energy security concerns and aiding the country’s industrial development are the main drivers for the country’s focus on coal sector development. The Strategy 2030 sets ambitious targets for coal production, reaching 10.4 Mt to 15.1 Mt by 2030.

Current and planned energy investments are in line with the government’s strategies to increase the capacity of renewables for electricity generation. Hydropower accounts for 90% of electricity generation projects (or 9.2 gigawatts [GW]), while coal-fired electric power plants are only 6% of the total electricity generation projects. These combined projects would significantly help to offet the winter shortages and to reduce the energy supply imbalances between the summer and winter months. They would also contribute to the Strategy 2030’s target to increase electricity generation from 17.1 TWh in 2015 to 26.2 TWh in 2020, and 40.7 TWh to 45 TWh in 2030.

The government supports the development of renewable energy resources, which it considers environmentally friendly, and provides a range of financial and regulatory incentives. These measures are listed in various legal and regulatory acts, including the Renewable Energy Law and the Tax Code. These measures, however, have been insufficient for stimulating market formation. Lack of financing has held back the promotion of energy-efficient and renewable energy technology deployment in the power or heating sectors. Among key impediments for the sector’s inability to attract investments are below-cost-recovery tariffs for electricity and heat and low revenue collection. Other factors are related to underdeveloped institutional capacity; absence of support mechanisms; and lack of awareness and knowledge within the industry, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the general population.

The country’s potential for energy efficiency gains also remains largely untapped, and although progress is evident in developing energy efficiency policies and related legal and regulatory measures, in the building sector in particular, the available evidence suggests that existing rules are poorly implemented and enforced. A market for energy services and energy service companies (ESCOs) does not currently exist in Tajikistan. Minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and other policies designed to improve the energy efficiency of appliances and energy-using equipment, including lighting, are partially adopted, and there is a need to develop a more comprehensive demand-side energy efficiency policy framework. The potential for efficiency gains in the industry and transport sectors is substantial as consumption continues to grow significantly, and responsibilities for enforcing energy efficiency policies and measures fall under multiple agencies and public bodies. The government’s attempts to establish a dedicated public body dealing with energy efficiency and renewable energy market developments have failed on numerous occasions, due to the scarcity of public financing available for creating a dedicated fund to move these sectors forward.

The Strategy 2030, as well as water and energy sector policies and measures deriving from it, consider energy- and water-related research, development and deployment (RD&D) as the key to sustainable deployment and green growth; however, the financial support to these research fields remains considerably small. The government, however, encourages donor and private-sector participation in this field and continues to work closely with international partners, promoting the adoption of modern innovative technologies where possible.

There are a number of large-scale regional projects where Tajikistan is a participant country. The Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA‑1000), funded by the World Bank, is a major project which aims to help Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan export summer surplus electricity to the neighbouring countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is expected that CASA‑1000, when operational, will integrate the electrical networks of Central and South Asia, allowing Tajikistan to benefit from increased electricity exports that will encourage further development.

Tajikistan is also a partner in wider regional projects for the development of oil and gas pipelines and electricity transmission, such as Line D of the Central Asia-China gas pipeline, one of the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) megaprojects in the world, with major funding from the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”) at a projected cost of USD 3 billion.

Tajikistan signed and ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1998 as a Non‑Annex I (or non‑industrialised) country. The country also signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2008 and the Paris Agreement in 2016/17. It reports on its commitments on a biennial basis, and its Fourth National Communication was approved in December 2021.

Tajikistan has been improving energy statistics data management and use over the past decades, as its Agency on Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan (TajStat) works in close co‑operation with regional and international partners enhancing data quality and reporting obligations. However, further human and financial resources are required for the agency to foster climate and demand-side data collection and development of energy efficiency indicators for sound policy making and tracking progress.

The government has been relaxing legislative and bureaucratic requirements for investors and has introduced green tariffs for small HPPs and purchase obligations for the state-owned utility Barqi Tojik. This has resulted in a surge in small HPP construction since 2007, with capacity reaching more than 130 MW (exceeding the projected level). While demand for small HPPs continues, negligible progress has been made in developing solar and wind energy.

In the electricity sector, the largest projects are the Rogun HPP on the Vakhsh River and the CASA‑1000 project, a 500 kilovolt (kV) transmission line connecting Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Rogun HPP, which will produce 3.6 GW at peak capacity and entirely eliminate winter shortages, was deemed feasible in 2014 and construction recommenced in 2016. The considerably higher electricity production when the first units come online will not only cover domestic demand but will also permit increased electricity exports to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and possibly northward exports to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

The government has also invested in the new Dushanbe-2 thermal power plant (TPP) (400 MW) and has updated heat supply pipelines in Dushanbe to reduce winter deficits and increase energy capacity. It has secured investments from the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB) to reduce losses in the energy sector, particularly for the installation of smart meters in Dushanbe and Khujand.

Coal production has grown significantly since 2007 and is set to continue to grow as the government rehabilitates TPPs and builds new coal-fired generation. Additionally, the government has encouraged industries to switch from natural gas and oil to coal, resulting in strong demand and high year-on-year production growth.

Tajikistan is part of the gas pipeline route from Turkmenistan to China (Line D). The construction phase of this project has not yet begun, and negotiations among project countries continue. The new infrastructure would allow Tajikistan to export gas to China, and, according to the Tajik government, a number of private investors have shown interest in developing oil and gas production in the country in recent years.

In 2016, Tajikistan began preparation of its Fourth National Communication of the Republic of Tajikistan under the UNFCCC with assistance from the UN Development Programme (UNDP). This report was prepared based on the results of the Paris Agreement, and was formally approved in 2021. 

The government of Tajikistan should:

• Advance energy sector reforms, including restructuring of the state-owned electric utility Barqi Tojik, establishing an independent regulator, gradually increasing electricity and heat tariffs to full cost recovery levels and removing energy subsidies and moving to targeted social support for the most vulnerable.
• Continue encouraging cross-border electricity trading to optimise resource use and enhance energy security.
• Ensure that coal mining and coal-based industrial developments comply with best practice for environmental liability and adhere to the highest environmental and safety standards in all coal-fired generation and coal-based industrial developments.
• Consolidate and co‑ordinate policies in the areas of district heating and cooling, oil, natural gas, coal, and energy efficiency fields, and support the development and demonstration of efficient, integrated systems to supply heating, cooling and electricity (trigeneration).
• Consider holding emergency oil stocks, with necessary legal and regulatory framework, including requirements for regular emergency response exercises to test system responsiveness in case of supply disruption.
• Enhance official energy statistics management and use as the basis of strategic policy directions and measuring progress. Support TajStat to increase data disaggregation and accuracy of energy end uses and to further align the production and dissemination of official energy statistics with international recommendations.
• Encourage closer co‑operation between the greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory compiler and TajStat to further improve energy-related GHG reporting and analysis and the underlying energy statistics.
• Develop a more comprehensive demand-side energy efficiency policy framework, including building codes, passenger vehicle fuel efficiency standards, MEPS and labelling for appliances and energy-using equipment, and well-enforced audit requirements for industry.
• Foster using incentives for small renewable energy suppliers to encourage entrepreneurship and the establishment of small businesses in the energy sector.
• Create a designated entity in charge of energy-efficient and renewable energy market development.
• Formulate an integrated energy research and development (R&D) strategy based on close co‑ordination with the Academy of Sciences and its public research institutions, relevant ministries, national enterprises, SMEs, international financial institutions (IFIs), and other bilateral or multilateral donors in the energy sector.