It’s been year since Russia invaded Ukraine, an act that delivered a massive shock to global energy markets and a crippling blow to Russia’s relationship with its biggest customer, the European Union.
Here is what has changed during a tumultuous year for the global energy system, and three takeaways from the crisis so far.
Russia’s oil exports have held up relatively well despite sanctions, with Moscow successfully re-routing shipments to Asia.
However, Russia may be struggling to find buyers for all of its barrels. In February, it announced it would curb output in March rather than be forced to sell to buyers complying with G7 price caps.
Russia's share of EU gas demand increased from 2010 to through 2021. The IEA was among the first to raise concerns about this dependence.
Russia more than halved its pipeline gas supplies to the EU in the past year. But nations found alternatives and reduced consumption. Russia's share of gas demand fell to below 10% in January 2023.
Europe's REPowerEU plan proposes ending the bloc’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and increasing the share of renewables in final energy consumption to 45% by 2030.
Renewable electricity capacity in the EU is projected to double between 2022-2027. The IEA revised its forecast for the EU, up by over 30%, from last year’s estimate.
Russia played the energy card and didn’t win. It is also losing access to technologies and financing due to sanctions.
Policies incentivising faster deployment of clean energy have been successful, while governments' pragmatism has helped secure alternative energy supplies.
Europe’s strong response and a mild winter have bought it valuable time. This will be key for insulating energy systems and shielding consumers from volatility.
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Where things stand in the global energy crisis one year on
Commentary — 23 February 2023