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What does COP28 need to do to keep 1.5°C within reach? These are the IEA's five criteria for success

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Energy Efficiency
Strong energy efficiency progress seen in 2023, but meeting climate goals means moving faster
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Net Zero Emissions
Oil and gas industry faces moment of truth – and opportunity to adapt – as clean energy transitions advance
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Investment
Cost of capital survey shows investments in solar PV can be less risky than gas power in emerging and developing economies
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Climate Change
New policy and business approaches are needed to support scaling up of CCUS
Events
View allIEA at COP28: The first fuel revolution – Accelerating energy efficiency for a sustainable future
IEA at COP28: New grids for new challenges: transforming the energy sector towards the 1.5 °C goal
IEA at COP28: Opportunities for renewable energy in Mauritania
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Energy sector emissions are predicted to decrease with current policies, but the 1.5 °C goal is still far-off
Driven by policies, expanding markets, and falling costs, clean energy technologies are shifting the outlook for emissions even under current policies. In the Stated Policies Scenario, emissions are now projected to be 7.5 Gt lower in 2030 than in our 2015 Pre-Paris Baseline Scenario, of which policy driven expansions of solar PV and wind account for 5 Gt and electric vehicles for nearly 1 Gt. This shift in the outlook means that the projected warming of 2.4 °C in 2100 under current policy settings, though still worryingly high, is now 1 °C lower than before the Paris Agreement in 2015.