Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook

In 2015, the Japanese government published the Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook based on the Strategic Energy Plan (2014). This outlook presents the ideal structure of energy supply and demand for 2030 that can be realized if appropriate measures are taken to achieve the fundamental objectives of energy policy: safety, energy security, economic efficiency and environmental protection.

 

Energy efficiency and renewable energy plays a key role in achieving all these objectives because they can contribute to energy independence, to the reduction of oil and gas imports and to the reduction of greenhouse gas emission.

 

According to this new plan, the final energy demand should save as much as 50.3 billion litres (crude oil equivalent) by 2030. By sector, savings from transport will amount to 16,070 thousand kilolitres, followed by commercial at 12,260 thousand kilolitres, residential sector 11,600 thousand kilolitres and industry at 10,420 thousand kilolitres. Those figures indicate that 35% improvement of final energy intensity needs to be achieved from 2012 to 2030. Renewable electricity generation would be 237-252 TWh, and its share in total electricity generation would be 22-24% in 2030: solar PV 7.0%, wind 1.7%, biomass 3.7-4.6%, geothermal 1.0-1.1% and hydro 8.8-9.2%.

 

This outlook must be re-examined at least every three years and can be revised corresponding to the situation.

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