The recently published World Energy Outlook 2021 highlights the need to end investment in new unabated coal-fired power plants, as well as strategies to retrofit, repurpose or retire existing ones. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) envisages that by 2030 advanced economies would end all power generation by unabated coal-fired plant. It also foresees the end of all unabated sub-critical coal generation in emerging markets and developing economies. Unabated coal generation would be phased out by 2040. This outlook coincides with commitments by a growing number of jurisdictions to phase out unabated coal in power generation. However, the contributions that these pledges will make to reducing global energy-related CO2 emissions fall far short of what is required in the NZE scenario. 

Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, 53 countries and the European Union have pledged to achieve net zero emissions. As of mid-2021, however, only 21 countries using unabated coal for electricity generation have committed to phase it out, between 2021 (Portugal) and 2040 (Chile). Among them, few countries have already done so, such as Austria (2020), Belgium (2016) and Sweden (2020). Collectively, these commitments cover just 4.1% of global coal-fired generation and 1.3% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions.

While the phase-out policies cover only a small share of coal generation capacity, and every country must tailor policies to its own circumstances, the experiences of jurisdictions in phasing out coal can be instructive for other countries. They can shed light on three main considerations: potential impacts on the local economy, the price of electricity and the security of electricity supply. These considerations depend in turn on factors such as the current share of coal in electricity generation; growth of electricity demand; reserve margin in the grid; availability of alternative sources of power generation; supporting network infrastructure, including interconnections; and whether local coal is supplying the power plants.

Of the 21 countries that have pledged to phase out coal, in 14 countries less than 10% of the electricity supply came from coal. In countries where coal contributes little to the power supply and there is no domestic coal industry, phasing out coal is likely to be feasible without detriment to the economy, electricity prices or security of electricity supply.

In three of the 21 countries, by contrast, coal represents more than 20% of the electricity supply. Seven countries also have a domestic mining industry that supplies coal for power generation. In such countries, phasing out coal will be longer and more complex. This short report analyses the phase-out experiences of the Canadian province of Ontario, the United Kingdom and Germany. Based on their experiences, we present six recommendations.