Key elements of an integrated, strategic policy roadmap for strengthening power system security in Kyrgyzstan over the next decade are presented in the table below.

The roadmap seeks to achieve the proposed strategic goal of improving power sector reliability and resilience by quickly strengthening power system security responses to sustained hydrological events, by deploying an interrelated set of policy measures that focus on achieving three strategic priorities:

• improving power system operation and management, especially in response to sustained hydrological events.
• broadening and deepening supply-side capability to respond to sustained hydrological events.
• developing complementary demand-side capability that can be deployed effectively during sustained hydrological events.

Pathways for developing and deploying each proposed measure are identified in the roadmap, along with indicative milestones for each of the main phases of the roadmap including the:

• Development phase (red cells), which focuses on the initial policy development process including analysing and reviewing existing arrangements to identify gaps and development opportunities, culminating in the formulation of specific policies and proposals to determine the nature and scope of the measure to be deployed and to guide subsequent implementation and operation.
• Implementation phase (orange cells), which focuses on operationalising policies. Detailed implementation arrangements would be developed and finalised during this period, including related operational policy, legal, regulatory, funding and programme delivery matters. This may also include potential preliminary implementation arrangements such as pilot or demonstration programmes. Preliminary implementation programmes are typically undertaken to support incremental learning and risk management, especially when measures introduce new processes, are potentially sensitive, or are in some other way groundbreaking.
• Operational phase (green cells), which commences when each measure is ready for full deployment in response to a sustained power system security event. It is envisaged that incremental development of measures will continue on an ongoing basis to ensure that they reflect experience and remain effective over time.

It is envisaged that most of the proposed measures could be developed quickly in parallel, with the objective of deploying them in the first two to three years of the programme. This reflects the integrated nature of several of the measures; the critical need to implement some measures quickly to provide a sound foundation for progressing other elements of the programme; the likely moderate cost of implementing most of these process-based measures; and the relative ease with which they could be developed and deployed, building on existing institutions, knowledge and experience. Accordingly, it is proposed to front-end-load much of the development and implementation activity, reflecting the urgent need to address the related power system security challenges facing Kyrgyzstan.

By contrast, most of the measures proposed for medium- or longer-term deployment are likely to raise a range of challenges that may require additional time to resolve. For instance, several of these proposed measures are likely to be complex to develop and implement, may require sensitive and time-consuming negotiation to progress, and may involve considerable capital expenditure and construction lead times. The proposed roadmap has sought to appropriately reflect these practical considerations.

An integrated set of measures is proposed to improve the system operator’s capability to manage sustained power system security events resulting from periods of water scarcity. These include upgrading operating practices, improving co‑ordination and communication arrangements, and upgrading training and capacity-building programmes, which are essentially based on process improvement with the potential to proceed relatively quickly. The development and implementation of the operating practice measure would benefit from close co‑ordination with the development of other related measures including the measure to update mandatory rationing and load-shedding arrangements, which is one of the demand-side priority activities, and the scenario-based modelling of contingency reserve measure, which is one of the supply-side priority activities.

Upgrading the system operator’s monitoring, analysis and real-time management tools and capabilities is a key proposed measure in this context, which offers the potential to substantially reduce power system losses and to greatly improve management of sustained hydrological events. However, implementation of this measure is likely to rely on the deployment of significant technological and capital upgrades which could prove complex, time-consuming and expensive to develop and implement in practice. These practical considerations are reflected in the period allocated in the roadmap for undertaking these activities. Another key measure is the proposed development of an integrated emergency management plan, which has the potential to support more effective, timely and co‑ordinated management of sustained hydrological events in the future. Development and implementation of this measure should proceed as a priority.

Supply-side measures represent the backbone of the roadmap, providing the primary response and main resources for managing sustained power system security events. The sensitivity analysis presented in the previous page suggests that an effective winter contingency reserve able to offset a credible sustained hydrological event would ultimately need to be in the order of at least 780 MW. This would represent a considerable investment of capacity and financial resources. It would be unrealistic to expect this level of contingency reserve to be developed and deployed in the short term. Hence, the roadmap proposes a three-stage approach to its development.

The first stage would involve securing a working reserve drawing from existing infrastructure. A potentially ideal candidate could be a portion of the underutilised generating capacity associated with the Bishkek CHP plant. This plant has the potential to become a readily available source of thermal generation, which is strategically located close to major loads, with the potential to be quickly deployed as an effective source of emergency power to offset the loss of hydroelectric power for the duration of a periodic seasonal hydrological shortage. As a result, it is potentially well placed to immediately contribute to the contingency reserve, which is reflected in the relatively short time frame proposed for deploying the first stage of the measure. Ideally, this first stage would aim to secure around 40% of the total capacity reserve required, representing around 350 MW, which would have been sufficient to compensate for the hydroelectric power losses experienced during the winters of 2015 and 2016.

The second phase of the programme offers the opportunity to broaden and deepen the sources of supply secured for the contingency reserve. For instance, previously untapped sources of distributed generation could be considered, along with a limited volume of demand response from large loads. In addition, the potential to increase the contribution from the existing Bishkek CHP plant, or from the proposed second Bishkek CHP plant if commissioned, could be explored. The likely additional time required to undertake this phase is reflected in the time frames proposed in the roadmap. Timely completion of the scenario-based methodology for assessing contingency reserve requirements measure, as proposed in the roadmap, would ensure that decisions around the volume and nature of the reserves procured through the second and third stages of the programme could be informed by robust analysis, which may result in more efficient, more flexible, more resilient, better located and more cost-effective outcomes.

In the longer term, the third stage of the contingency reserve programme could seek to further extend the potential national and regional sources of supply. For instance, opportunities to broaden and deepen the provision of domestically sourced reserves could be explored, including demand response. Similarly, opportunities to procure emergency operating reserves from regional power producers could be considered, especially if the proposed measure to strengthen regional management of power system security were to materialise within the time frame envisaged in the roadmap. In the interim, it is anticipated that the current ad hoc regional reserve-sharing arrangements could continue as required. Alternatively, consideration could be given to constructing new generating capacity dedicated for the contingency reserve, such as an appropriately sized open-cycle gas turbine, should such an option prove to be cost-effective and practical to deploy. The proposed second Bishkek CHP plant may be in service toward the end of the implementation period and could provide an effective alternative source of new generating capacity for the contingency reserve. Some of these options are likely to be relatively expensive, politically challenging to pursue and time-consuming to deliver, which is reflected in the longer development and implementation time frames proposed.

The demand-side measures proposed in the roadmap have the potential to improve existing rationing arrangements and to unlock a range of resources that can complement and reinforce traditional supply-side responses to sustained power system security events. For instance, the communications strategy measure has the potential to help harness considerable voluntary power savings during a power system emergency event, while the contractual mechanisms measure potentially provides a practical means for securing contingency reserves from non‑traditional sources, such as distributed generators. Similarly, the scarcity pricing measure combined with the contractual mechanisms measure has the potential to create powerful financial incentives for large-scale consumers to offer timely and efficient volumes of demand response during sustained emergency events. Together, these measures also have the potential to substantially increase overall power system flexibility and resilience, which would help to improve the reliability of the power system, especially during a sustained hydrological event.

Similarly, energy efficiency and power consumption substitution measures have considerable potential to deliver substantial power savings in the longer term, which could significantly improve power system security over time. Accordingly, it is proposed that measures be developed and implemented to incrementally harness these power savings, initially focusing on improving building energy efficiency, and the deployment of more efficient space heating and appliances. Opportunities to switch from electric space heating to efficient alternatives, such as district heating, could also be pursued where it is feasible and cost-effective to do so. Initial priority should be given to harnessing these opportunities in the residential, industrial and public sectors.

However, in the shorter term, the most practical opportunities for timely and cost-effective deployment of energy efficiency and substitution measures in the lead-up to and during a sustained emergency event are likely to be limited to energy-efficient lighting, maintenance to improve electric motor efficiency, minor building weatherisation initiatives and some opportunistic substitution of space heating. A power saving education and awareness programme targeting the residential sector could also be considered as part of the immediate response, which could be developed as part of the proposed communications and media strategy measure.

Beyond the traditional forms of consumption rationing, several of the demand-side measures proposed are likely to be new to Kyrgyzstan and may take longer to develop and implement than some of the other better understood measures proposed. This is reflected in the longer lead times proposed for the development and implementation of those measures in the roadmap. It is also reflected in the proposed measure to develop an integrated deployment strategy to ensure that demand-side measures are available and ready to deploy during sustained emergency events. This measure has the potential to become a key catalyst for timely, efficient and effective deployment of demand-side measures. Hence, it is proposed to give high priority to its development and deployment.

This combination of measures provides an integrated and comprehensive approach for pursuing power system security in Kyrgyzstan. In particular, the proposed roadmap provides a range of practical measures focused on the key areas of power production and consumption that will determine power system reliability and resilience during a sustained hydrological event.

The roadmap also recognises the interrelated nature of the power system security challenges facing Kyrgyzstan during sustained periods of water shortage, and will support the development of a mutually reinforcing set of policies and programmes that can address these matters in a practical, timely and cost-effective manner. As a result, the proposed approach is likely to be durable and able to adapt to changing requirements over time.

Nevertheless, a range of practical and evolving risks and challenges are likely to be encountered as implementation and operational deployment proceed, which will require ongoing flexibility and adaptability to resolve. International experience suggests that the most effective way to respond to these challenges is to adopt an incremental and innovative approach to deployment, reflecting the principles of continual improvement.

Under this approach, policies are typically implemented in stages, initially involving demonstration projects or some other targeted activity, with the lessons drawn from experience fed into the next iteration of deployment. Policies are developed and refined gradually in a co‑ordinated manner as these implementation cycles proceed. Increasing maturity can be expected to bring greater confidence and the wider stakeholder support needed to progressively deploy policies and programmes to a larger target group, increasing the measure’s effectiveness while drawing on practical experience to reduce subsequent implementation risks and costs.

The government of the Kyrgyz Republic could therefore consider adopting this type of approach, supported by effective management and appropriate whole-of-government co‑ordination, to ensure that the measures are developed and deployed in a timely and effective manner.