Security, affordability and sustainability

Finding the right balance

  • Policy makers need to balance goals related to energy security, affordability and sustainability. Some policy choices can simultaneously boost all three, but many require trade-offs. A critical challenge is to minimise the trade-offs and to help avoid a narrow focus on one that unwittingly compromises the others.
  • Fuel security remains a vital element of energy security. Disruption in a major producing region or at today’s trade chokepoints, including the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca, could lead to severe price volatility. Maintaining reliable fuel infrastructure and the systems they depend on is essential to support security in energy transitions and facilitate the scaling up of low-emissions fuels.
  • Electricity security is high on the agenda as increasing demand and more variable generation sources highlight the importance of secure, resilient and flexible power systems. Batteries are rapidly scaling up to provide short-term flexibility; demand response can provide short-term and some seasonal flexibility while also helping to keep costs down; thermal power and hydropower are the main sources of seasonal flexibility today and are set to remain so through to 2050.
  • The security of clean energy supply chains and of critical minerals supply is of pivotal importance to clean energy transitions. Clean energy manufacturing capacities are well above deployment levels today, but facilities are highly concentrated geographically. Critical minerals supply is also highly concentrated, and there is risk of future gaps between prospective supply and demand for copper and lithium.
  • Issues of affordability and fairness are at the centre of the energy debate today. Clean energy transitions can help reduce household bills, but this depends on a sharp increase in investment and on support for those that cannot afford the higher upfront costs of some clean energy technologies. Today, almost 750 million people lack access to electricity and 2 billion people lack access to clean cooking: significantly accelerated action is needed to achieve universal energy access by 2030.
  • Climate change and poor air quality entail severe risks to lives and livelihoods. In the STEPS, the temperature rise reaches 2.4 °C by 2100 while in the NZE Scenario it peaks at less than 1.6 °C and then falls to less than 1.5 °C in 2100. Action to reduce CO2 emissions to net zero as soon as possible and rapidly cut methane emissions is essential to reduce climate change risks. Together with action on other pollutants, this also brings dramatic improvements in air quality.
  • Boosting clean energy investment is vital for just, orderly and equitable transitions. Clean energy investment rises from around USD 2 trillion today to nearly USD 3 trillion in the STEPS in 2035 and to USD 5 trillion in the NZE Scenario.

Household energy expenditure weighs heavily on the poor

The poorest households in advanced economies spend nearly one quarter of their disposable income on energy; in emerging market and developing economies, many poor households lack access to modern energy or do not own appliances or vehicles.

90%

10%

5%

EMDE

1 500

10%

Percentiles of income

90%

Share of household income

20%

15%

10%

5%

Home energy bill

Advanced

economies

1 500 USD (2023, PPP)

4 500

Fuel expense for transport

Oil and gas import dependency

Oil and gas import dependency rises in Asia in the STEPS, with particularly steep increases in Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia

2010

2050

100%

Oil

0%

Natural gas

100%

China

2010

2050

Import

Domestic production

India

2010

2050

Japan and Korea

2010

2050

Household expenditure on energy bills and clean energy

Household expenditure is lower in the NZE Scenario than in the STEPS in advanced economies; it is higher in the near term in emerging market and developing economies, but soon falls.

2023

2050

100% (STEPS)

Advanced economies (NZE)

EMDE (NZE)

100% (STEPS)