Global Energy Transitions Stocktake
Tracking progress toward the Paris Agreement
This year marks the finalisation of the first Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement, which assesses the world’s collective progress against its climate goals. In support of that important effort, the IEA is bringing together all of its latest data on clean energy transitions in one place, making it freely accessible to citizens, governments, and industry. This page, which will be consistently updated in the lead up to COP28, includes a calendar of all major releases throughout the year, making it easy to follow the latest updates and find links to IEA’s reports and in-depth analysis.
Upcoming events and releases
|
Month |
Release |
|---|---|
|
February |
|
|
March |
|
|
April |
|
|
May |
|
|
June |
|
|
July |
Clean Energy Technology Guide (with Clean Energy Demonstrations Project Database) |
|
September |
|
|
October |
|
Global tracking indicators
Global CO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes, 1900-2022
OpenCO2 Emissions in 2022: Growth in emissions lower than feared
Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 0.9% or 321 Mt in 2022, reaching a new high of over 36.8 Gt. Following two years of exceptional oscillations in energy use and emissions, caused in part by the Covid-19 pandemic, last year’s growth was much slower than 2021’s rebound of more than 6%. Emissions from energy combustion increased by 423 Mt, while emissions from industrial processes decreased by 102 Mt.
In a year marked by energy price shocks, rising inflation, and disruptions to traditional fuel trade flows, global growth in emissions was lower than feared, despite gas-to-coal switching in many countries. Increased deployment of clean energy technologies such as renewables, electric vehicles, and heat pumps helped prevent an additional 550 Mt in CO2 emissions.
In a year marked by energy price shocks, rising inflation, and disruptions to traditional fuel trade flows, global growth in emissions was lower than feared, despite gas-to-coal switching in many countries. Increased deployment of clean energy technologies such as renewables, electric vehicles, and heat pumps helped prevent an additional 550 Mt in CO2 emissions.
Global methane emissions from the energy sector, 2000-2022
OpenMethane emissions remained stubbornly high in 2022
Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. Cutting methane emissions is one of the most effective near-term ways to limit global warming and improve air quality. Today, the energy sector accounts for around 40% of total methane emissions attributable to human activity, second only to agriculture. In 2022, the global energy industry released nearly 135 million tonnes of methane into the atmosphere, only slightly below the record highs seen in 2019. However, emissions from very large leaks detected by satellite fell by almost 10% in 2022 from what was detected in 2021, and preliminary estimates indicate that there was also a reduction in natural gas flaring.
Increase in heat pumps sales in selected regions and globally, 2021 compared to 2020
OpenIn 2021 heat pump sales grew by nearly 15%
Around 10% of space heating needs globally were met by heat pumps in 2021, but the pace of installation is growing rapidly. Global sales grew by nearly 15% in 2021, double the average of the last decade. Growth in the European Union was around 35%, and is slated to accelerate further in light of the energy crisis, with sales in the first half of 2022 roughly double over the same period last year in Poland, the Netherlands, Italy and Austria. China continues to be the largest market for new sales, while North America has the largest number of homes with heat pumps today. Together, these regions, along with Japan and Korea, are also major manufacturing hubs, home to the industry’s largest players.
Global electric car stock, 2010-2021
OpenSales of electric cars doubled in 2021
Few areas in the world of clean energy are as dynamic as the electric car market. Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) doubled in 2021 to a new record of 6.6 million. Just 120 000 electric cars were sold worldwide in all of 2012. More than that many were sold each week in 2021. The success of EVs is being driven by multiple factors but sustained policy support is the main pillar. Public spending on subsidies and incentives for EVs nearly doubled in 2021 to nearly USD 30 billion. A growing number of countries have pledged to phase out internal combustion engines or have ambitious vehicle electrification targets for the coming decades. Finally, five times more new EV models were available in 2021 than in 2015, increasing the attractiveness for consumers.
Total renewable capacity additions, 2002-2022
OpenAnnual renewable capacity additions broke a new record in 2021
The global energy crisis is driving a sharp acceleration in installations of renewable power as fossil fuel supply disruptions have underlined the energy security benefits of domestically generated renewable electricity.
Higher fossil fuel prices have also improved the competitiveness of solar PV and wind generation. The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next 5 years as it did in the previous 20 years, overtaking coal to become the largest source of global electricity by early 2025. Global capacity additions will be driven by Europe, China, the US and India, which are all speeding up policies and introducing regulatory and market reforms to combat the energy crisis.
Higher fossil fuel prices have also improved the competitiveness of solar PV and wind generation. The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next 5 years as it did in the previous 20 years, overtaking coal to become the largest source of global electricity by early 2025. Global capacity additions will be driven by Europe, China, the US and India, which are all speeding up policies and introducing regulatory and market reforms to combat the energy crisis.
Global public energy RD&D budget, 2015-2021
OpenGovernment spending on energy RD&D could reach USD 40 billion in 2022
Public RD&D spending played a significant role in fostering previous waves of technological change, and it can encourage private investment by signalling the long-term commitments of policymakers to the energy transition, as well as providing an indication of the trajectory of clean energy roll-outs. Forward looking indicators on RD&D can point to what sort of energy solutions or types of technologies are being developed or are about to be built.
Government spending for clean energy investment support and short-term consumer energy affordability measures, July 2021 - November 2022
OpenGovernments have allocated USD 1.2 trillion to clean energy since the pandemic
Since the start of the Covid-19 crisis, governments have enacted USD 1 215 billion in clean energy investment support. This amount is unprecedented, but also heavily imbalanced as 95% is in advanced economies.
In addition, policymakers have spent a further USD 630 billion in efforts to protect households and businesses from rising energy bills since autumn 2021. Only about 35% of these short-term affordability measures were targeted towards the most needy households or to businesses most exposed to the effects of high energy prices. Without better targeting, new affordability measures will further contribute to rising levels of government debt.
In addition, policymakers have spent a further USD 630 billion in efforts to protect households and businesses from rising energy bills since autumn 2021. Only about 35% of these short-term affordability measures were targeted towards the most needy households or to businesses most exposed to the effects of high energy prices. Without better targeting, new affordability measures will further contribute to rising levels of government debt.
Global energy investment, 2017-2022
OpenGlobal clean energy spending is ramping up
Our updated tracking, across all sectors, technologies and regions, suggests that world energy investment is set to rise over 8% in 2022 to reach a total of USD 2.4 trillion, well above pre-Covid levels. Investment is increasing in all parts of the energy sector, but the main boost in recent years has come from the power sector – mainly in renewables and grids – and from increased spending on end-use efficiency.
Key indicators related to energy investment, 2021
OpenOnly 20% of clean energy investment occurs in emerging and developing economies
Emerging and developing economies excluding China accounted for two-thirds of the world’s population in 2021, but only one-third of total energy investment and just 20% of global investment in clean energy technologies. Annual clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies needs to increase by more than seven times to over USD 1 trillion by 2030 to put the world on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. A new special report, developed in partnership with IFC, aims to address the challenge of mobilising more investment for clean energy in emerging and developing markets. The report builds on previous work from the IEA, and will draw upon nearly 50 real-world case studies.
The clean energy economy is gaining ground, but greater efforts are needed
Recent technology developments are driving progress on clean energies. Among the 55 key clean energy sectors and technologies tracked in the IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress, only electric vehicles and lightning were fully on track in 2021 for their 2030 milestones laid out in the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 Scenario. But another 30 other areas are seeing positive trends, even if they require more effort to get on track.
Global CO2 emissions changes by technology maturity category in the Net Zero Scenario, 2050 compared to 2030
OpenHalf the emission reductions needed to reach net zero come from technologies not yet on the market
The IEA Clean Energy Technology Guide tracks progress on more than 500 individual technologies needed to achieve net-zero emissions in the energy sector. For each of these technologies, the Guide assesses their level of maturity, compiles a global list of development and deployment plans, and provides cost and performance indicators, including targets for future objectives. The Guide also features the Clean Energy Demonstrations Technology Database, which tracks and provides more information on large-scale demonstrators.
Energy-related and process CO2 emissions by scenario, 2010-2050
OpenMeeting all net zero pledges on time and in full would result in 1.7 °C of temperature rise in 2100
Energy‐related and industrial CO2 emissions rebounded by 1.9 Gt in 2021 – the largest ever annual rise in emissions – with global CO2 emissions in 2021 totalling 36.6 Gt. IEA scenarios illustrate the difference in CO2 emissions trajectory and temperature rise compared to the baseline prior to the Paris Agreement. Both the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) show that Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and new net zero emission pledges would bring significant emission reductions and curb the temperature rise compared to the pre-Paris baseline.
However, neither would be enough to keep the temperature rise to “well below 2 °C" nor reflect efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario, CO2 emissions drop to zero in 2050 with temperature rise peaking below 1.6 °C around 2040, before falling to around 1.4 °C in 2100.
However, neither would be enough to keep the temperature rise to “well below 2 °C" nor reflect efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario, CO2 emissions drop to zero in 2050 with temperature rise peaking below 1.6 °C around 2040, before falling to around 1.4 °C in 2100.
International collaboration needs to accelerate on key sectors
At COP26 in Glasgow, more than two-thirds of the global economy signed onto the Breakthrough Agenda, with endorsement from 45 world leaders, including those of the G7, China and India. It is designed to strengthen international collaboration on decarbonising key sectors. This Breakthrough Agenda Report, led by the IEA in collaboration with IRENA and the UN Climate Change High-Level Action Champions, provides recommendations to prioritise and improve such collaboration between governments, business and civil society in areas including common standards, technology R&D, reaching a level playing field for trade, and improving technical and financial assistance.
Number of people without access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa and the world, 2012-2022
OpenFor the first time in decades, the number of people without access to electricity is set to increase in 2022
The pandemic and the global energy crisis that followed are undermining efforts to ensure universal access to secure affordable energy, especially in the developing world.
According to the latest IEA estimates, the number of people around the world who live without electricity is set to rise by nearly 20 million in 2022, reaching nearly 775 million, the first global increase since the IEA began tracking the numbers 20 years ago. The rise is mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of people without access is nearly back to its 2013 peak, erasing years of improvements.
According to the latest IEA estimates, the number of people around the world who live without electricity is set to rise by nearly 20 million in 2022, reaching nearly 775 million, the first global increase since the IEA began tracking the numbers 20 years ago. The rise is mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of people without access is nearly back to its 2013 peak, erasing years of improvements.
Energy employment in fossil fuel and clean energy sectors, 2019-2022
OpenClean energy employs over 50% of total energy workers
The energy sector employed over 65 million people in 2019, equivalent to around 2% of global employment. Energy sector employment recovered strongly after the Covid-19 pandemic, returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2021 thanks to resilient growth in clean energy and recently introduced incentives. Clean energy employs over 50% of total energy workers, owing to the substantial growth of new projects coming online—a trend seen across most global regions.
Global electrolyser capacity by size, 2018-2021
OpenThe pipeline of low-emission hydrogen projects is growing
Hydrogen demand reached 94 million tonnes (Mt) in 2021, recovering to above pre-pandemic levels (91 Mt in 2019), and containing energy equal to about 2.5% of global final energy consumption. Most of the increase was met by hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels, meaning there was no benefit for mitigating climate change. Production of low-emission hydrogen was less than 1 Mt in 2021, practically all of it from using fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). However, the pipeline of projects for producing low-emission hydrogen is growing at an impressive speed. Completion of all those projects could result in the world’s capacity to produce hydrogen via electrolysers rising to up to 290 gigawatts in 2030 from just 0.5 gigawatts in 2021.
Country-level tracking indicators
Moving to sustainable energy systems is a global challenge that involves a multitude of decisions taken at national and local levels. Not every country starts from the same position, and not every country can or will seek the same solutions. That will depend on the structure of its economy, its legacy energy mix, and factors such as climate and geography.
Related analysis
-
As their sales continue to rise, SUVs’ global CO2 emissions are nearing 1 billion tonnes
Commentary — 27 February 2023
-
Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Clean Energy Transitions: Time for a New Approach?
A "price gap-plus" approach could bring carbon prices and environmental costs into the equation.
-
LiFE lessons from India
The benefits of advancing the Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) initiative through the G20
-
Hydrogen Patents for a Clean Energy Future
A global trend analysis of innovation along hydrogen value chains
-
Government Energy Spending Tracker
December 2022 update
-
CO2 storage resources and their development
An IEA CCUS Handbook
-
The Future of Heat Pumps
-
Opportunities for Hydrogen Production with CCUS in China
